You prepare a second you pinching the nose

Madam Chancellor, we extend our most sincere wishes for the year that opens. But we we do no illusion on this ill-fated vintage: it will cost you lot of sweat, and perhaps, at times, tears, even if you're ultimately renewed at the head of the country, in the fall.

For you, this major global crisis falls more than evil. Without it, you may claim a flattering review. Since the formation of the grand coalition, in 2005, the number of unemployed declined by 2 million people, with the drastic reform of the labour market bold by your predecessor paid to him in his defeat. Public finances are balanced, brought by two years of strong growth, export-led. With these results, you could approach this election super-année in position of strength. Contemplate with serenity the regional Hesse (January 18), the European (June 7), Saxony, Thuringia and Saarland regional news (August 30) and, finally, the legislative (27 September). Celebrate with insurance, in may, the 60th anniversary of the creation of the RFA, and then the 20th anniversary of the fall of the wall. Measure the distance covered, extol the liveliness of German democracy.

But that's it, you will, in fact, have to deal with the worst recession since 1945, with a national wealth which could back this year of 2 or 3, or 4. Attend a rapid resurgence of unemployment could hit 1 million additional assets. See the deficit, knocking the Maastrichtian of the 3 of GDP ceiling. An economic hurricane that will put to the test your skills of captain.

However, so far, you have disappointed. You are first asked in misunderstood Cassandre. You have then adopted the tip of the lips a recovery plan which proved ethics. You prepare a second you pinching the nose. Your Bavarian allies and many forecasters clamoring to cor tax cuts that you want to keep in your channel as two-faced campaign promises. You insist on the necessity of not threatening future generations, but you will probably give them.

The Interior of the country, your prevarications instil doubt in the minds. The economy, this is not your field of choice. Will you be violence to set a clear course. Remember, the father of the social market economy, Ludwig Erhard aphorism: "the economy, it is for half of psychology."

Abroad, you have squandered much of the sympathy and authority capital accumulated in two and a half years in a few months. Gordon Brown took the extent of the financial earthquake much more quickly. Nicolas Sarkozy has been able to blame the French Presidency of the European Union to impose as a leader. Once invested, Barack Obama risk you prefer one of your peers to establish a link with Europe. What to do to give weight to the Germany at the G20 in April in London At the environmental conference in Copenhagen in December

You can certainly find a benefit to this recession. It forced solidarity your Social Democratic opponent, Foreign Minister Frank-Walter Steinmeier which we present also, moreover, in a non-partisan spirit, our wishes. Subject to an obstructionist, it cannot afford to oppose head-on you by such a swell. Technocrat pure juice, never elected again, warm speaker, it should not get too much shade. Besides that you may be, both are forced to form a large coalition. The crisis seems to benefit the two joysticks formations. Die Linke (radical left), which ceased in the intentions of voting until last summer, flows. The Greens and the SPD are the majority of the seats. Your CDU, Bavarian friends restless and Liberals of the FDP in seem closest, but you may need to seduce, in addition, the Greens, to build a strong coalition. Unless the FDP join the opposing camp. Its leader, Guido Westerwelle, could you pay support price high. With the emergence of Die Linke, the set of coalitions has become infernal. No, really, not an easy year. However, you can find some comfort in history. Since 1949, all Chancellors who performed a first full term were renewed! Yes, good year, Madam Chancellor.