Which is not the case obviously time in Tehran

That deal with the Iran Since the 1979 revolution, which overthrew the Shah, the United States have difficulty in answering this question, noted the Brookings Institution just before the presidential election in Iran on June 12. A study of the "think tank" of Washington detailed almost all options on the table, the war to the partnership through the targeted strikes.

Since the re-election of Mahmoud Ahmadinejad has been questioned in the streets of Iranian cities and the Suppression of the regime violently struck, creating fractures within the ruling elites.

But the cards have been rebattues Paradoxically, to the West, the Iranian Enigma has thickened. Neither the US nor the European or even countries neighbouring monarchies of the Gulf of Persia have managed to resolve their dilemma. The geostrategic situation is now even more paradoxical that the administration of George w. Bush had turned the region the two most hostile regimes in Tehran, one of Saddam Hussein and the Taliban.

In the face, since the revelations in August 2002 of Iranian dissidents in exile according to which the Iran secretly continues a nuclear programme, attitude towards Tehran oscillates between the carrot and the stick. But this strategy has failed for Tehran an abandonment of this program. Once again, Westerners are threatening to tighten their sanctions. The five permanent members of the Security Council - United States, China, Russia, France and Britain - the Germany and the European Union, met last week in Berlin, called Tehran to accept direct negotiations on this issue. They meet late September in New York, on the margins of the General Assembly of the United Nations.

Clément Therme, responsible for teaching at the Institute for advanced international studies and the development of Geneva and who has made several recent visits to Iran, doubt the effectiveness of reinforced sanctions. His eyes, they affect above all the population, including through inflation and shortages, and not the regime.

In addition, if American companies abandoned the Iran, all countries do not play the same card. China, Clément Therme, has become a real platform for re-export to the Iran. But this is not the only country. The Europeans are not absent either.

The aggravation of the plight of the Iranian people on the other hand allows Mahmoud Ahmadinejad once again play the nationalist card to the West. Sanctions are used to plan pretext to justify the deterioration of the economic situation, says Thierry Coville in an article published by Iris (Institute for international and strategic relations). In 2008, economic growth, then spiked by the price of oil was estimated at 6.9. But even at that rate, it is insufficient to absorb some young 800,000 arriving each year on the job market. And the increase in gross domestic product is expected to be this year between 0.5 and 2.5, while the rate of unemployment, unofficially, somewhere between 20 to 25.

For the Iranian President, already badly elected, this is very high risk. While the opposition is not a great organizational capacity capable of overthrowing the regime. But the protests have not been, as in other countries since the fall of the wall of Berlin, a civil society movement encouraged from the outside, but "a movement from the bottom, spontaneous", according to Clément Therme.

In addition, if the ruling elite, tightening around the power of the Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and his protégé Ahmadinejad, becomes more and more homogeneous, it has lost its link with the outside and is removed from a large part of the population. Its main Achilles heel is his inability, today, to offer opportunities to the Iranians. And this is where new international sanctions very targeted against the regime can increase its own internal problems. The Iranian paradox is to be an oil-producing countries but importer for about 40 of its gasoline consumption, therefore fragile to the outside. But there is a condition, that the US President Barack Obama succeeds at the same time to maintain its policy of openness. Indeed, to practise a policy of tense hand must be, as rightly noted by French President Nicolas Sarkozy, have an interlocutor. Which is not the case, obviously, time in Tehran. But more and more Iranians today criticized Mahmoud Ahmadinejad to have increased the isolation of their country on the international scene. The Iranian strategy is to gain time to continue the nuclear program and likely to reach "a threshold" just prior to the manufacture of an atomic bomb and, at the same time, to divide powers between them, between a Western "block" and an "Eastern" bloc, China and Russia, more prudent. This is the trap that should be avoided.