In the United States Chevron decreased 2

Market weather became more stormy in the mid-August. Already in the Red at the weekend after a poor us consumer confidence index, the major markets shares recorded net declines yesterday. The shock wave came from Asia: Shanghai fell by almost 6 (see below). In the United States, the S & P 500 a remote yesterday 2.43 at the end, after have grown more than 10 since mid-July and about 50 since its low point in March. An increase of 13 in a month, affecting an annual highest new last week, the CAC 40 index fell by 2.16, to 3.419,69 points. The European broad index, the DJ Stoxx 600, gave 1.98, its largest daily fall since early July. Indices of volatility as the VIX ( 14,92) experienced a sharp increase. Operators are wondering if the stock market is not mounted too quickly, taking into account the fragile macroeconomic statistics.

Major stock markets were penalized by the decline of the banking and raw materials and oil on a background of decline values courses. In Europe, industry minerals and metals has weighed on the DJ Stoxx 600, who appear to be Red Lantern (-4,19). In the United States, Chevron decreased 2.97 at the end, penalizing clearly Dow Jones. Alcoa fell from 6.48. Below the expectations of the chain Lowe's (-10,34) were not reassured, ahead of Home Depot.

Index Empire Manufacturing in the United States, was not sufficient to restore hope to the markets. Just have from time to time reduced their losses, after the publication of this index measuring the evolution of the manufacturing sector of the New York area (increase of more than 12 points in August, while economists expected it to 3 points). "Places need to catch their breath after rising dramatically in recent weeks and to release statistics, observed Roman Boscher, Director of the management shares of Groupama AM.". Investors especially need to be reassured on the consumer and, more generally, document ' employment and inflation.

The issue is that if the stock market slump sign the judgment of the summer progression. Technical analysis of Aurel, the fact that CAC 40 passed under 3.440 points suggests a continuation of the decline in the short term to 3.69 points. Similarly, the passage of the S & P 500 below 1,000 points might lead to 970 points.

Increase in the forecast

However, many strategists and managers want to put into perspective the fall of yesterday, speaking more air hole. "I think, for the moment, a breath." "The trend might however become more erratic," said Jean-Louis Mourier, Economist of Aurel. Volumes the days increase (1) - although lower that those in the same period of last year - exceed now slightly those down, according to calculations by the specialist, "which shows that the rally has become a little more solid".

Similar analysis for Romain Boscher, reminiscent of the technical factors in place for this rebound still present: "even if the fall trend remains uncertain, the rebound could still somewhat endure." There are outgoing flows of monetary funds to actions, while revisions of results have become upward in the United States.

Indeed, on the front of the quarterly, the finding suggests rather optimism. On the 456 US companies who have provided their results, 72 have exceeded expectations, according to the data of Thomson Reuters, more than 63 observed in the eight previous quarters. On the year, analysts anticipate a decrease of 5 followed by a rebound in more than 25 in 2010. They also provide a net increase of European profits in 2010 ( 26), and a marked decline in 2009 (-18).

Morgan Stanley has thus meet its forecasts on the results of European companies: strategists now consider growth of 20 in 2010 and see their trough in the third quarter of 2009. "This confirms our view that the bear market ended early March", indicate, now even for the time being their "neutral" on action recommendation.